Cearense 1 Semi-finals
Global 8-4
Ceará vs Guarany de Sobral analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
83.5%
Win probability
2.63
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.9%
6-0
2.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.5%
5-0
4.8%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.8%
4-0
9%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
11.5%
3-0
13.7%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
18.5%
2-0
15.7%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.1%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
+1
20.8%
12%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
5.5%
2-2
1.7%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
12%
4.5%
Win probability
0.46
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
1.3%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
3.7%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.7%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ceará
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 2015 |
VIT
2 - 2
CEA
58%
22%
20%
|
69 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2015 |
CEA
0 - 0
VIT
43%
25%
32%
|
69 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2015 |
GUA
0 - 1
CEA
11%
20%
69%
|
69 | 45 | 24 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2015 |
CON
0 - 0
CEA
11%
20%
69%
|
69 | 45 | 24 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2015 |
CEA
2 - 1
SAL
78%
15%
7%
|
69 | 53 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Guarany de Sobral
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar. 2015 |
GUA
3 - 1
SAO
67%
20%
14%
|
45 | 33 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2015 |
ITA
1 - 1
GUA
37%
26%
37%
|
45 | 41 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2015 |
GUA
1 - 0
HOR
30%
25%
45%
|
44 | 50 | 6 | +1 |
| 05 Mar. 2015 |
HOR
3 - 4
GUA
63%
21%
16%
|
42 | 51 | 9 | +2 |
| 26 Feb. 2015 |
GUA
3 - 2
ITA
47%
25%
29%
|
42 | 41 | 1 | 0 |