Cearense 1 Final
Global 2-3
Ceará vs Fortaleza EC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.9%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.6%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.9%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.8%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.2%
31.9%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.2%
0-2
5%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ceará
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 2009 |
CEA
1 - 2
ITA
73%
17%
10%
|
61 | 41 | 20 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2009 |
ICA
3 - 2
CEA
23%
24%
54%
|
62 | 45 | 17 | -1 |
| 31 Mar. 2009 |
CEA
2 - 1
HOR
73%
17%
10%
|
62 | 48 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2009 |
CEA
4 - 3
GUA
68%
19%
13%
|
61 | 51 | 10 | +1 |
| 26 Mar. 2009 |
MAR
1 - 1
CEA
23%
22%
55%
|
61 | 47 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Fortaleza EC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 2009 |
PAR
1 - 1
FOR
40%
26%
34%
|
64 | 62 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2009 |
FOR
2 - 2
GUA
77%
15%
9%
|
64 | 50 | 14 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2009 |
GUA
1 - 4
FOR
25%
24%
51%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | +1 |
| 16 Apr. 2009 |
FOR
2 - 1
PAR
49%
23%
28%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2009 |
FOR
3 - 2
BOV
78%
14%
8%
|
62 | 43 | 19 | +1 |