Copa do Brasil 1/16
Global 2-1
Ceará vs Brasiliense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.9%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
10.9%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.6%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.8%
19.3%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ceará
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
CEA
0 - 1
FOR
62%
23%
15%
|
73 | 60 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2011 |
QUI
1 - 2
CEA
14%
22%
64%
|
73 | 38 | 35 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2011 |
GUA
1 - 0
CEA
16%
21%
64%
|
73 | 48 | 25 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2011 |
BRA
0 - 0
CEA
28%
26%
46%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2011 |
CEA
4 - 2
HOR
69%
19%
12%
|
73 | 52 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Brasiliense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2011 |
BRA
4 - 1
BRA
69%
19%
12%
|
61 | 42 | 19 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2011 |
BRA
0 - 0
CEA
28%
26%
46%
|
61 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2011 |
BRA
1 - 0
CEI
71%
18%
11%
|
61 | 45 | 16 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2011 |
CEI
1 - 2
BRA
19%
21%
60%
|
61 | 42 | 19 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2011 |
BRA
2 - 1
FOR
70%
18%
12%
|
60 | 46 | 14 | +1 |