Liga MX Finals Cl. Quarter-finals
Global 2-3
Cruz Azul vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.5%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.4%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
22.4%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.8%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+19%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cruz Azul
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2006 |
TOL
2 - 1
CAZ
54%
24%
22%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2006 |
CAZ
3 - 2
PAC
47%
24%
29%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2006 |
MON
0 - 1
CAZ
47%
25%
28%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | +1 |
| 16 Apr. 2006 |
CAZ
1 - 3
AME
52%
23%
25%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | -1 |
| 09 Apr. 2006 |
CAZ
3 - 0
VER
69%
18%
13%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2006 |
TOL
2 - 1
CAZ
54%
24%
22%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2006 |
CHI
0 - 2
TOL
47%
26%
27%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Apr. 2006 |
TOL
1 - 2
SAN
57%
22%
20%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2006 |
AME
2 - 1
TOL
53%
25%
23%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | -1 |
| 16 Apr. 2006 |
DOR
1 - 1
TOL
33%
27%
40%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |