Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 0-3
CD El Nacional vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.1%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.3%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.7%
24.2%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.6%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD El Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct. 2006 |
EME
2 - 2
NAC
38%
25%
36%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2006 |
NAC
2 - 1
OLM
61%
22%
18%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2006 |
NAC
4 - 2
MAC
73%
18%
10%
|
80 | 64 | 16 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2006 |
TOL
1 - 0
NAC
55%
24%
21%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2006 |
CUE
0 - 1
NAC
28%
26%
46%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct. 2006 |
JAG
1 - 1
TOL
46%
27%
28%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2006 |
TOL
2 - 3
VER
64%
21%
16%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2006 |
PAC
0 - 1
TOL
45%
28%
27%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 26 Sep. 2006 |
TOL
1 - 0
NAC
55%
24%
21%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | +1 |
| 24 Sep. 2006 |
ATS
0 - 0
TOL
40%
28%
33%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |