CD El Nacional vs Paulista analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.2%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
5%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.5%
3-0
8.6%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14%
2-0
11%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
17.5%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.5%
12.3%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.5%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD El Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2006 |
NAC
2 - 0
MAC
69%
19%
12%
|
80 | 65 | 15 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2006 |
LIG
3 - 2
NAC
51%
23%
26%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2006 |
NAC
4 - 0
AUC
68%
19%
13%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2006 |
EME
0 - 2
NAC
34%
26%
40%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2005 |
NAC
2 - 0
BSC
68%
19%
14%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Paulista
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2006 |
PAU
1 - 3
NOR
74%
16%
10%
|
72 | 58 | 14 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2006 |
SAO
1 - 1
PAU
25%
25%
51%
|
72 | 57 | 15 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2006 |
PAU
2 - 2
MAR
68%
19%
14%
|
72 | 61 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2006 |
POR
0 - 1
PAU
18%
21%
61%
|
72 | 54 | 18 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2006 |
SAO
2 - 0
PAU
57%
24%
19%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | -1 |