Copa Ecuador Semi-finals
Global 3-3
CD El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.1%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.7%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
26.6%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.7%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.4%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD El Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2022 |
NAC
5 - 0
IMB
57%
23%
20%
|
71 | 63 | 8 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2022 |
NAC
2 - 0
OCT
44%
23%
33%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | +1 |
| 04 Sep. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 1
OLM
64%
21%
15%
|
70 | 58 | 12 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2022 |
NAC
0 - 1
AME
53%
25%
22%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 0
MAN
62%
22%
15%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Mushuc Runa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2022 |
MUS
1 - 2
LIG
31%
26%
43%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2022 |
MAC
3 - 0
MUS
39%
27%
34%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2022 |
MUS
2 - 0
GUA
52%
25%
23%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | +1 |
| 26 Aug. 2022 |
MUS
2 - 4
IVT
34%
26%
40%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 2022 |
OCT
2 - 0
MUS
49%
23%
28%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | 0 |