Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 4-3
CD El Nacional vs Liga de Quito analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.6%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.4%
3-0
7%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.4%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
20.5%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.5%
17%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD El Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2006 |
QUI
0 - 3
NAC
40%
25%
35%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2006 |
LIG
2 - 3
NAC
52%
22%
26%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | +1 |
| 13 Aug. 2006 |
AUC
3 - 3
NAC
32%
26%
42%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | -1 |
| 04 Aug. 2006 |
NAC
0 - 0
CUE
66%
20%
14%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2006 |
MAC
1 - 1
NAC
27%
25%
48%
|
80 | 65 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Liga de Quito
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2006 |
BSC
3 - 0
LIG
44%
27%
29%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2006 |
LIG
2 - 3
NAC
52%
22%
26%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2006 |
LIG
4 - 3
AUC
69%
18%
13%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2006 |
CUE
1 - 1
LIG
40%
27%
32%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2006 |
LIG
1 - 3
MAC
79%
14%
7%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | -1 |