Conmebol Sudamericana Playoffs 1/16
Global 1-2
CD El Nacional vs Defensa y Justicia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.9%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5%
2-0
7%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.1%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.5%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
33.2%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.4%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD El Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul. 2018 |
NAC
3 - 3
DEL
39%
26%
35%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2018 |
BSC
3 - 1
NAC
61%
22%
17%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | -1 |
| 19 Jul. 2018 |
DYJ
2 - 0
NAC
59%
23%
19%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | -1 |
| 15 Jul. 2018 |
EME
1 - 0
NAC
52%
25%
24%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2018 |
NAC
0 - 3
DEL
46%
25%
29%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Defensa y Justicia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 2018 |
DYJ
2 - 0
NAC
59%
23%
19%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2018 |
DYJ
1 - 0
MIT
78%
15%
7%
|
80 | 59 | 21 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2018 |
DYJ
2 - 0
ARS
65%
21%
14%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2018 |
NOB
1 - 0
DYJ
36%
29%
36%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2018 |
DYJ
3 - 1
CEN
41%
25%
34%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | +1 |