CD El Nacional vs Cumbayá analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.4%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.4%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
13.4%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.2%
1-0
13%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
19.2%
11.4%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.4%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-18%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
11
7º
15º
7º
1
12º
16º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
16º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
16 | 27 |
1º
|
29.5% | |
|
2º
|
13 | 27 |
2º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
10 | 24 |
3º
|
11.5% | |
|
3º
|
13 | 24 |
4º
|
8% | |
|
4º
|
12 | 23 |
5º
|
6.5% | |
|
5º
|
11 | 23 |
6º
|
9% | |
|
|
6º
|
11 | 23 |
7º
|
8.5% | |
|
8º
|
10 | 22 |
8º
|
13% | |
|
9º
|
10 | 22 |
9º
|
7% | |
|
10º
|
8 | 20 |
10º
|
8.5% | |
|
15º
|
3 | 20 |
11º
|
9% | |
|
13º
|
4 | 18 |
12º
|
8.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 18 |
13º
|
12.5% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 16 |
14º
|
23.5% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 16 |
15º
|
28.5% | |
|
|
16º
|
1 | 9 |
16º
|
90% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
6% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
94% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD El Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep. 2024 |
CDS
2 - 3
NAC
9%
17%
75%
|
80 | 46 | 34 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
CUE
1 - 2
NAC
48%
25%
28%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | +1 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 0
AUC
48%
24%
28%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2024 |
EME
0 - 1
NAC
37%
28%
35%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 3
MAC
57%
23%
20%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Cumbayá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 2024 |
CFC
1 - 2
IMB
35%
27%
38%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
MUS
0 - 0
CFC
63%
22%
15%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
CFC
1 - 3
IVT
23%
28%
49%
|
69 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2024 |
RIV
3 - 0
CFC
52%
24%
24%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
LIG
2 - 1
CFC
64%
22%
14%
|
70 | 79 | 9 | 0 |