Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 5-2
CD El Nacional vs Club Universitario analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.2%
Win probability
2.76
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.2%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
3.1%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.8%
3-0
8.6%
4-1
5.6%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.9%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.6%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.4%
14.5%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.5%
10.3%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
3%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD El Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 2006 |
NAC
2 - 2
AUC
67%
19%
14%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2006 |
UNI
1 - 3
NAC
37%
23%
40%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | +1 |
| 09 Sep. 2006 |
OLM
1 - 0
NAC
29%
26%
44%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | -1 |
| 03 Sep. 2006 |
NAC
0 - 0
QUI
62%
21%
17%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2006 |
NAC
1 - 1
LIG
63%
21%
17%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Club Universitario
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 2006 |
UNI
4 - 1
RPO
48%
25%
27%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2006 |
UNI
1 - 3
NAC
37%
23%
40%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | -1 |
| 10 Sep. 2006 |
UNI
3 - 2
OPE
53%
25%
23%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
| 03 Sep. 2006 |
SAN
0 - 1
UNI
50%
25%
26%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2006 |
BOL
2 - 3
UNI
61%
21%
19%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | +1 |