Castro vs UM Escobedo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
8%
Win probability
0.56
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
+3
0.2%
2-0
1%
3-1
0.4%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.5%
1-0
3.6%
2-1
2.2%
3-2
0.4%
4-3
<0%
+1
6.2%
16.9%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
2.4%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
16.9%
75.1%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
0-1
14%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
15.4%
1-3
6.3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22.7%
0-3
11.2%
1-4
3.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
15.1%
0-4
6.2%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.2%
-4
7.8%
0-5
2.7%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0%
-5
3.3%
0-6
1%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+13%
+60%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2018 |
RAC
2 - 0
CAS
84%
11%
4%
|
15 | 33 | 18 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2018 |
CAS
1 - 3
BAR
20%
24%
56%
|
16 | 22 | 6 | -1 |
| 28 Jan. 2018 |
TRO
4 - 0
CAS
84%
12%
5%
|
17 | 33 | 16 | -1 |
| 21 Jan. 2018 |
CAS
2 - 1
SAN
32%
26%
42%
|
16 | 18 | 2 | +1 |
| 13 Jan. 2018 |
BEZ
1 - 1
CAS
55%
23%
22%
|
16 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
UM Escobedo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2018 |
RAY
0 - 3
ESC
17%
21%
61%
|
35 | 21 | 14 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2018 |
PON
0 - 0
ESC
68%
19%
12%
|
35 | 47 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2018 |
ESC
4 - 0
RAC
44%
24%
31%
|
33 | 35 | 2 | +2 |
| 28 Jan. 2018 |
BAR
0 - 3
ESC
27%
23%
50%
|
32 | 23 | 9 | +1 |
| 24 Jan. 2018 |
ESC
1 - 2
UPL
34%
24%
42%
|
33 | 39 | 6 | -1 |