Castro vs Sámano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5%
3-0
8.6%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.5%
2-0
14.2%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.6%
1-0
15.5%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.5%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
21.7%
12.4%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+33%
+37%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 2016 |
TRO
0 - 1
CAS
60%
22%
19%
|
25 | 29 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2016 |
CAS
0 - 1
CAY
22%
27%
52%
|
26 | 37 | 11 | -1 |
| 02 Apr. 2016 |
CUL
4 - 2
CAS
33%
26%
41%
|
28 | 22 | 6 | -2 |
| 24 Mar. 2016 |
CAS
3 - 0
SIE
61%
23%
17%
|
27 | 18 | 9 | +1 |
| 19 Mar. 2016 |
LAR
3 - 1
CAS
71%
18%
11%
|
27 | 38 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Sámano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2016 |
SAM
0 - 1
GIM
16%
23%
61%
|
18 | 38 | 20 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2016 |
ALB
1 - 0
SAM
50%
25%
25%
|
18 | 20 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2016 |
SAM
2 - 3
RAC
16%
22%
62%
|
19 | 39 | 20 | -1 |
| 27 Mar. 2016 |
COL
1 - 0
SAM
40%
26%
34%
|
19 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2016 |
SAM
1 - 0
SEL
44%
23%
32%
|
18 | 20 | 2 | +1 |