Castro Daire vs Guarda Desportiva analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.2%
Win probability
2.13
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.4%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.2%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
7%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.5%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.3%
18.5%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
20
7º
13º
12º
10
2º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
49 | 52 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
2º
|
49 | 52 |
2º
|
16.5% | |
|
3º
|
48 | 51 |
3º
|
59% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 48 |
4º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
43 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 42 |
6º
|
93% | |
|
7º
|
38 | 38 |
7º
|
93% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 33 |
8º
|
71.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 32 |
9º
|
71.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 29 |
10º
|
67% | |
|
10º
|
29 | 29 |
11º
|
67% | |
|
|
12º
|
20 | 20 |
12º
|
84% | |
|
13º
|
17 | 17 |
13º
|
84% | |
|
|
14º
|
10 | 11 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castro Daire
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
LUS
2 - 1
CAS
74%
18%
9%
|
36 | 47 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
CAS
0 - 0
GON
31%
29%
41%
|
36 | 41 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
SAL
1 - 1
CAS
75%
18%
8%
|
35 | 48 | 13 | +1 |
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
CAS
2 - 2
REB
34%
25%
42%
|
35 | 39 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
ALP
1 - 0
CAS
38%
24%
39%
|
36 | 30 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Guarda Desportiva
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
GUA
1 - 2
BMA
15%
22%
63%
|
26 | 45 | 19 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
MAR
3 - 0
GUA
77%
14%
9%
|
27 | 42 | 15 | -1 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
RES
2 - 4
GUA
54%
20%
25%
|
25 | 28 | 3 | +2 |
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
GUA
0 - 2
LUS
20%
22%
58%
|
27 | 45 | 18 | -2 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
GON
2 - 2
GUA
79%
13%
8%
|
26 | 43 | 17 | +1 |