Série D Brazil Ronda final 1/16
Global 1-4
Castanhal vs Moto Club MA analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.4%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.7%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.8%
23.8%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.2%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castanhal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2021 |
MOT
2 - 0
CAS
33%
25%
42%
|
45 | 39 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
GAL
1 - 5
CAS
25%
25%
51%
|
45 | 35 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2021 |
CAS
1 - 1
PEN
64%
22%
15%
|
45 | 37 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
SAO
1 - 2
CAS
37%
25%
38%
|
44 | 39 | 5 | +1 |
| 15 Aug. 2021 |
CAS
5 - 0
GAS
78%
14%
8%
|
44 | 23 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Moto Club MA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2021 |
MOT
2 - 0
CAS
33%
25%
42%
|
39 | 45 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2021 |
MOT
3 - 0
TOC
76%
15%
10%
|
39 | 25 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2021 |
GUA
4 - 2
MOT
45%
27%
29%
|
41 | 40 | 1 | -2 |
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
MOT
3 - 1
JCA
68%
18%
15%
|
39 | 34 | 5 | +2 |
| 14 Aug. 2021 |
MOT
1 - 4
PAR
57%
23%
21%
|
41 | 37 | 4 | -2 |