Castanet vs Pau FC II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.6%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.8%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.6%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
12%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.3%
26.2%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.2%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-19%
+16%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
3
3º
13º
5º
4
6º
13º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
10 | 45 |
1º
|
19% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 44 |
2º
|
10.5% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 39 |
3º
|
8% | |
|
3º
|
9 | 39 |
4º
|
11% | |
|
|
12º
|
3 | 38 |
5º
|
9% | |
|
|
9º
|
4 | 38 |
6º
|
7.5% | |
|
11º
|
4 | 37 |
7º
|
6.5% | |
|
8º
|
5 | 37 |
8º
|
7% | |
|
4º
|
7 | 36 |
9º
|
9.5% | |
|
7º
|
5 | 34 |
10º
|
6.5% | |
|
1º
|
12 | 34 |
11º
|
8% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 33 |
12º
|
9% | |
|
13º
|
2 | 31 |
13º
|
13% | |
|
14º
|
0 | 20 |
14º
|
49.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
6.5% | 6.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
74% | 67.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
7% | 6.5% |
|
Relegation
|
12.5% | 19.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castanet
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
TRE
1 - 1
CAS
37%
28%
35%
|
39 | 38 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
CAS
0 - 0
BLA
48%
26%
26%
|
39 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
ONE
1 - 1
CAS
32%
23%
45%
|
39 | 30 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
0 - 2
CRF
55%
24%
21%
|
41 | 37 | 4 | -2 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
CAS
3 - 3
SPS
78%
14%
8%
|
41 | 18 | 23 | 0 |
Matches
Pau FC II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
FCP
1 - 0
LEG
61%
20%
19%
|
37 | 33 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
FCA
2 - 2
FCP
39%
23%
37%
|
37 | 33 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
FCP
1 - 2
BAS
77%
14%
9%
|
37 | 23 | 14 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
COL
2 - 1
FCP
40%
27%
33%
|
38 | 37 | 1 | -1 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
FCP
1 - 2
COL
56%
24%
20%
|
39 | 36 | 3 | -1 |