Castanet vs Blagnac analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.1%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.2%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.6%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
25.8%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.4%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-24%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
5º
13º
6º
16
9º
13º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
29 | 53 |
1º
|
65.5% | |
|
3º
|
23 | 44 |
2º
|
29% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 42 |
3º
|
21% | |
|
5º
|
21 | 39 |
4º
|
11.5% | |
|
4º
|
22 | 37 |
5º
|
13% | |
|
|
8º
|
19 | 37 |
6º
|
9.5% | |
|
9º
|
18 | 36 |
7º
|
10% | |
|
6º
|
20 | 35 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
16 | 34 |
9º
|
13.5% | |
|
7º
|
19 | 34 |
10º
|
9% | |
|
11º
|
15 | 33 |
11º
|
13.5% | |
|
12º
|
12 | 27 |
12º
|
28% | |
|
13º
|
12 | 26 |
13º
|
29% | |
|
14º
|
7 | 20 |
14º
|
71% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
2% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
75% | 62% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
8% | 14.5% |
|
Relegation
|
15% | 23.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castanet
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
ONE
1 - 1
CAS
32%
23%
45%
|
41 | 31 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
0 - 2
CRF
55%
24%
21%
|
42 | 39 | 3 | -1 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
CAS
3 - 3
SPS
78%
14%
8%
|
42 | 20 | 22 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
ONE
1 - 2
CAS
31%
23%
46%
|
41 | 31 | 10 | +1 |
| 27 Apr. 2024 |
CAS
1 - 1
BAY
65%
20%
15%
|
42 | 34 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Blagnac
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
BLA
0 - 1
LEG
60%
22%
18%
|
42 | 34 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 0
BLA
32%
24%
44%
|
43 | 32 | 11 | -1 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
BLA
1 - 2
STA
51%
25%
24%
|
43 | 36 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
SPS
0 - 4
BLA
19%
22%
59%
|
43 | 21 | 22 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2024 |
BLA
4 - 0
ONE
56%
22%
22%
|
42 | 32 | 10 | +1 |