Casa Pia AC vs Benfica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
22.6%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.7%
2-0
3.5%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.8%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.6%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.6%
52.8%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
0-1
12%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
9.8%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.2%
0-3
5.3%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.9%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
+18%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
30
6º
18º
7º
47
1º
15º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
51 | 77 |
1º
|
66.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
47 | 73 |
2º
|
40% | |
|
3º
|
43 | 67 |
3º
|
33.5% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
43.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 54 |
5º
|
34.5% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 54 |
6º
|
35.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
15% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 45 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 43 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 43 |
11º
|
19.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 41 |
12º
|
17.5% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 38 |
13º
|
16.5% | |
|
14º
|
19 | 34 |
14º
|
24.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
20% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
20.5% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
17º
|
31% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 25 |
18º
|
44.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 22.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 40% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 24.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0.5% | 13% |
|
Mid-table
|
99.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Casa Pia AC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan. 2025 |
BOA
2 - 3
CAS
32%
27%
41%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
CAS
1 - 3
RIO
45%
26%
29%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
CAS
1 - 1
FAM
37%
27%
36%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
SPB
1 - 2
CAS
69%
19%
12%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2024 |
CAS
3 - 1
ARO
38%
27%
35%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2025 |
SLB
4 - 5
FCB
10%
15%
75%
|
89 | 99 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2025 |
SLB
4 - 0
FAM
69%
18%
13%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
FAR
1 - 3
SLB
22%
24%
54%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | -1 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
SCP
1 - 1
SLB
48%
23%
29%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2025 |
SLB
3 - 0
SPB
47%
23%
31%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | +1 |