Carmelita vs Deportivo Upala analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
87.9%
Win probability
3.5
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.4%
8-0
0.8%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.1%
7-0
1.9%
8-1
0.6%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.6%
6-0
3.8%
7-1
1.3%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.4%
5-0
6.6%
6-1
2.7%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
<0%
+5
9.8%
4-0
9.4%
5-1
4.6%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
+4
15%
3-0
10.7%
4-1
6.6%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19.1%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.4%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
6.4%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
14.9%
8.1%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
3.7%
2-2
2.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
8.1%
3.9%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
1%
1-2
1.3%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
3%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-15%
+225%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
4º
8º
7º
5
10º
15º
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
15º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
22 | 39 |
1º
|
88.5% | |
|
2º
|
16 | 33 |
2º
|
44% | |
|
4º
|
16 | 30 |
3º
|
20% | |
|
5º
|
15 | 29 |
4º
|
19% | |
|
6º
|
15 | 28 |
5º
|
14% | |
|
7º
|
15 | 28 |
6º
|
11% | |
|
|
3º
|
16 | 26 |
7º
|
15% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 26 |
8º
|
9.5% | |
|
8º
|
15 | 25 |
9º
|
7.5% | |
|
10º
|
12 | 23 |
10º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
8 | 21 |
11º
|
8.5% | |
|
11º
|
11 | 19 |
12º
|
16.5% | |
|
12º
|
11 | 19 |
13º
|
20.5% | |
|
14º
|
7 | 18 |
14º
|
27% | |
|
16º
|
5 | 10 |
15º
|
33.5% | |
|
17º
|
1 | 9 |
16º
|
27.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
5 | 9 |
17º
|
26% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 5 |
18º
|
56.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
14% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
86% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Carmelita
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2024 |
JFC
0 - 2
ADC
15%
20%
65%
|
45 | 28 | 17 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
ADC
1 - 1
COF
35%
25%
40%
|
45 | 50 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
MRP
1 - 3
ADC
59%
21%
20%
|
43 | 51 | 8 | +2 |
| 21 Aug. 2024 |
ADC
2 - 2
SAR
34%
24%
42%
|
42 | 52 | 10 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
ADR
2 - 2
ADC
79%
14%
7%
|
42 | 60 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Deportivo Upala
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
DUF
2 - 1
JFC
9%
13%
77%
|
8 | 27 | 19 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2024 |
COF
2 - 2
DUF
84%
11%
5%
|
7 | 50 | 43 | +1 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
DUF
2 - 7
MRP
13%
19%
68%
|
7 | 50 | 43 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
SAR
3 - 2
DUF
81%
13%
7%
|
7 | 52 | 45 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2024 |
DUF
0 - 2
ADR
14%
21%
65%
|
7 | 60 | 53 | 0 |