EFL Trophy Semi-finals
Global 4-4
Carlisle United vs Leeds United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.1%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.4%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
3.2%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.4%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
7.7%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19%
25.9%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.9%
41%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
21.6%
0-2
7%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.1%
0-3
3.3%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Carlisle United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2010 |
HUR
1 - 1
CUM
58%
23%
20%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2010 |
COL
2 - 1
CUM
48%
26%
27%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | -1 |
| 30 Jan. 2010 |
CUM
2 - 2
LEY
62%
22%
16%
|
63 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2010 |
EXE
2 - 3
CUM
39%
27%
35%
|
63 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2010 |
CUM
0 - 0
STO
76%
16%
8%
|
63 | 48 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Leeds United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2010 |
HAR
2 - 2
LEE
23%
26%
51%
|
74 | 54 | 20 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2010 |
LEE
1 - 3
TOT
23%
25%
53%
|
74 | 89 | 15 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2010 |
LEE
2 - 0
COL
65%
21%
14%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2010 |
SWI
3 - 0
LEE
35%
28%
38%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2010 |
TOT
2 - 2
LEE
78%
15%
7%
|
74 | 89 | 15 | 0 |