Carlisle United vs Horsham analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.1%
Win probability
2.39
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.8%
4-0
6%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.4%
3-0
10%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.2%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.7%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.8%
16.2%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.2%
9.6%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Carlisle United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2021 |
NOR
3 - 0
CUM
50%
25%
24%
|
52 | 58 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2021 |
CUM
0 - 0
OLD
46%
25%
29%
|
52 | 50 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2021 |
NEW
2 - 2
CUM
48%
26%
26%
|
51 | 57 | 6 | +1 |
| 16 Oct. 2021 |
CUM
0 - 1
TRA
29%
28%
43%
|
52 | 61 | 9 | -1 |
| 09 Oct. 2021 |
BRO
3 - 0
CUM
34%
26%
39%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | -2 |
Matches
Horsham
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2021 |
HOR
2 - 3
CAR
34%
26%
41%
|
35 | 41 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2021 |
KIN
1 - 0
HOR
54%
22%
24%
|
35 | 37 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2021 |
HOR
1 - 1
BIS
32%
25%
43%
|
36 | 40 | 4 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 2021 |
HOR
0 - 2
CHE
49%
22%
28%
|
37 | 35 | 2 | -1 |
| 16 Oct. 2021 |
HOR
1 - 0
WOK
29%
24%
46%
|
35 | 42 | 7 | +2 |