Carlisle United vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.7%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.4%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.4%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.2%
1-0
13.7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.8%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
15.7%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.1%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-27%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Carlisle United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 1974 |
OXF
0 - 1
CUM
46%
28%
26%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1974 |
BPO
4 - 0
CUM
56%
24%
20%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1974 |
CUM
1 - 0
SUN
47%
25%
28%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1974 |
CUM
2 - 1
NTT
56%
24%
20%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | +1 |
| 12 Apr. 1974 |
SUN
2 - 1
CUM
59%
23%
18%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 1974 |
ASV
3 - 1
NTT
46%
29%
25%
|
70 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1974 |
ASV
1 - 2
SUN
41%
28%
32%
|
71 | 78 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 Apr. 1974 |
BPO
2 - 1
ASV
60%
23%
17%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1974 |
ASV
0 - 1
BPO
48%
27%
25%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
| 13 Apr. 1974 |
HUL
1 - 1
ASV
55%
25%
19%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | 0 |