Cardiff MU vs Penybont analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.4%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.9%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.7%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
30.2%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
8.9%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.2%
0-2
5%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-41%
+7%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
34
4º
7º
6º
28
3º
8º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
74.5% | 89.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
25.5% | 10.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cardiff MU
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec. 2023 |
CAR
1 - 0
PON
72%
18%
10%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
BAL
0 - 1
CAR
47%
26%
27%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2023 |
HAV
1 - 1
CAR
32%
25%
44%
|
67 | 60 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
CAR
4 - 2
ABE
69%
19%
11%
|
67 | 52 | 15 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2023 |
HAV
1 - 1
CAR
35%
27%
38%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Penybont
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
TNS
3 - 0
PEN
62%
20%
18%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
PEN
0 - 2
BAL
50%
25%
25%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2023 |
BAR
1 - 1
PEN
25%
25%
50%
|
66 | 55 | 11 | +1 |
| 25 Nov. 2023 |
COL
2 - 1
PEN
21%
24%
55%
|
66 | 52 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2023 |
PEN
1 - 1
NEW
43%
25%
32%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | -1 |