Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.5%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.1%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
26.3%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.9%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-40%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
39
4º
6º
6º
41
2º
5º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
92 | 30 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 14 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 12 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
44 | 11 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
41 | 10 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
39 | 5 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cardiff MU
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
BAL
1 - 1
CAR
47%
27%
27%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 2
CAE
52%
24%
24%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | +1 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
TNS
8 - 0
CAR
65%
20%
16%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | -1 |
| 03 Jan. 2024 |
SWA
0 - 0
CAR
32%
22%
46%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | +1 |
| 30 Dec. 2023 |
BAR
0 - 0
CAR
23%
26%
51%
|
67 | 52 | 15 | -1 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
CON
1 - 1
CAE
54%
23%
23%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 2
CAE
52%
24%
24%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 1
COL
62%
20%
18%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
TNS
2 - 1
CAE
71%
16%
13%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
CAE
0 - 1
HAV
51%
24%
26%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | 0 |