Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.9%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.9%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.9%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.6%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
24.3%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.1%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-40%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
34
4º
7º
6º
31
1º
8º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
74.5% | 31.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
25.5% | 68.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cardiff MU
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
TNS
8 - 0
CAR
65%
20%
16%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2024 |
SWA
0 - 0
CAR
32%
22%
46%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | +1 |
| 30 Dec. 2023 |
BAR
0 - 0
CAR
23%
26%
51%
|
67 | 52 | 15 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
CAR
0 - 3
PEN
43%
26%
30%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2023 |
CAR
1 - 0
PON
72%
18%
10%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 1
COL
62%
20%
18%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
TNS
2 - 1
CAE
71%
16%
13%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
CAE
0 - 1
HAV
51%
24%
26%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
PON
1 - 2
CAE
26%
24%
50%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | +1 |
| 28 Nov. 2023 |
BAL
1 - 1
CAE
51%
24%
25%
|
59 | 65 | 6 | 0 |