Cardiff City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.8%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.5%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.6%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.8%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.9%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
30.1%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.2%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.5%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-16%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cardiff City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 1929 |
BUR
3 - 0
CAR
66%
18%
16%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1929 |
BOL
1 - 0
CAR
66%
19%
15%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | -1 |
| 29 Dec. 1928 |
CAR
2 - 0
NEW
47%
24%
29%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 1928 |
CAR
2 - 1
LEE
48%
23%
29%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1928 |
LEE
3 - 0
CAR
56%
22%
22%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 1929 |
DER
0 - 0
SUN
59%
20%
21%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1929 |
EVE
4 - 0
DER
62%
20%
18%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | -1 |
| 29 Dec. 1928 |
BBU
3 - 1
DER
57%
22%
21%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1928 |
DER
1 - 2
HUR
59%
20%
21%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1928 |
HUR
0 - 0
DER
61%
21%
19%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |