Canada vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
21.4%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.2%
2-0
3.6%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
5%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
14.9%
28%
Draw
0-0
11.8%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
28%
50.6%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
16.1%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
26.2%
0-2
10.9%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
15.3%
0-3
4.9%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
6.4%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
2.1%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Canada
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May. 1986 |
CAN
2 - 0
WAL
18%
28%
55%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1986 |
MEX
3 - 0
CAN
86%
10%
4%
|
68 | 88 | 20 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 1986 |
CAN
0 - 0
USA
63%
19%
18%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1986 |
URU
3 - 1
CAN
75%
17%
8%
|
68 | 86 | 18 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 1986 |
CAN
0 - 0
PAR
16%
25%
59%
|
68 | 82 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May. 1986 |
CAN
2 - 0
WAL
18%
28%
55%
|
84 | 68 | 16 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1986 |
WAL
0 - 0
URU
48%
28%
24%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1986 |
IRL
0 - 1
WAL
50%
27%
23%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1986 |
KSA
1 - 2
WAL
37%
27%
36%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1985 |
WAL
0 - 3
HUN
30%
27%
42%
|
84 | 90 | 6 | 0 |