Série D Brazil Ronda final 1/16
Global 2-3
Caldense vs Aparecidense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.2%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
5.3%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
15.8%
27.8%
Draw
0-0
11%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
27.8%
48.9%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
15%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
-1
25.4%
0-2
10.2%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
14.7%
0-3
4.6%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
-3
6.1%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caldense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
CAL
1 - 2
RIO
43%
27%
30%
|
49 | 46 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2021 |
FER
3 - 1
CAL
63%
23%
15%
|
49 | 61 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
CAL
0 - 1
BOA
33%
30%
37%
|
50 | 53 | 3 | -1 |
| 14 Aug. 2021 |
UBE
2 - 3
CAL
52%
26%
23%
|
49 | 51 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Aug. 2021 |
CAL
0 - 0
PAT
56%
25%
19%
|
49 | 42 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Aparecidense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep. 2021 |
NME
1 - 0
APA
31%
28%
41%
|
57 | 51 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2021 |
APA
2 - 1
GAM
59%
23%
18%
|
56 | 48 | 8 | +1 |
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
APA
4 - 1
GOI
57%
25%
19%
|
55 | 49 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2021 |
JAR
1 - 1
APA
12%
21%
67%
|
55 | 33 | 22 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2021 |
POR
0 - 2
APA
15%
22%
63%
|
55 | 40 | 15 | 0 |