Caldense vs Aparecidense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.6%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.9%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.9%
1-0
13.5%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
27.5%
Draw
0-0
9.9%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
27.5%
26%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.1%
-1
16.9%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
6.7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caldense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 2015 |
OPE
0 - 3
CAL
27%
30%
44%
|
57 | 43 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2015 |
CAL
1 - 2
COM
65%
22%
13%
|
58 | 43 | 15 | -1 |
| 01 Aug. 2015 |
COM
0 - 1
CAL
27%
30%
44%
|
58 | 44 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2015 |
CAL
0 - 0
OPE
67%
21%
12%
|
58 | 45 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2015 |
APA
0 - 1
CAL
45%
28%
26%
|
59 | 57 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Aparecidense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 2015 |
APA
2 - 0
COM
61%
22%
17%
|
55 | 45 | 10 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2015 |
RIO
1 - 1
APA
37%
27%
36%
|
55 | 50 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2015 |
APA
0 - 0
RIO
54%
24%
22%
|
55 | 50 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2015 |
COM
1 - 1
APA
25%
26%
49%
|
55 | 44 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2015 |
APA
0 - 1
CAL
45%
28%
26%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | -2 |