Caldas vs Lusitânia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.3%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.6%
2-0
5.2%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.5%
1-0
8%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.7%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25.2%
41.5%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
21.3%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
12.4%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.3%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+36%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
9
2º
9º
7º
4
4º
9º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
14 | 35 |
1º
|
55% | |
|
5º
|
7 | 28 |
2º
|
12.5% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 28 |
3º
|
11.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 26 |
4º
|
16.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
4 | 25 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 24 |
6º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
9 | 24 |
7º
|
12.5% | |
|
9º
|
5 | 20 |
8º
|
14% | |
|
4º
|
8 | 20 |
9º
|
24% | |
|
8º
|
5 | 18 |
10º
|
35% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
41.5% | 38% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
58.5% | 62% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caldas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
BEL
2 - 1
CAL
62%
21%
18%
|
45 | 50 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
CAL
0 - 2
MAF
12%
19%
69%
|
45 | 65 | 20 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
CAL
4 - 1
FCA
59%
22%
20%
|
45 | 36 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
CAL
2 - 1
PEN
63%
21%
16%
|
45 | 36 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
CAL
2 - 2
UDL
16%
22%
62%
|
45 | 62 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Lusitânia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2024 |
LUS
3 - 3
ACA
38%
27%
35%
|
49 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
LUS
2 - 1
VST
31%
27%
42%
|
48 | 52 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 May. 2024 |
USA
1 - 1
LUS
52%
24%
23%
|
47 | 50 | 3 | +1 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
MON
0 - 1
LUS
27%
25%
48%
|
47 | 41 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
VST
3 - 1
LUS
56%
23%
21%
|
47 | 51 | 4 | 0 |