Caldas vs Arouca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
9.9%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1.3%
3-1
0.5%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.9%
1-0
4.3%
2-1
2.7%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
7.5%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
18.9%
71.2%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
0-1
14.4%
1-2
9%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
25.4%
0-2
14.7%
1-3
6.1%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
21.9%
0-3
10.1%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
13.6%
0-4
5.1%
1-5
1.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
6.6%
0-5
2.1%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
2.6%
0-6
0.7%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0.1%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caldas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2017 |
CAL
3 - 1
1DE
44%
27%
29%
|
43 | 42 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2017 |
LOU
2 - 1
CAL
50%
25%
25%
|
44 | 47 | 3 | -1 |
| 29 Oct. 2017 |
TOR
4 - 3
CAL
53%
25%
22%
|
44 | 48 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2017 |
CAL
1 - 0
LUS
58%
24%
18%
|
44 | 37 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2017 |
CES
1 - 2
CAL
38%
27%
35%
|
44 | 40 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2017 |
VSC
1 - 2
ARO
34%
27%
38%
|
64 | 56 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2017 |
ARO
1 - 0
UNM
47%
27%
26%
|
63 | 62 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Oct. 2017 |
ACA
4 - 1
ARO
40%
29%
31%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | -2 |
| 22 Oct. 2017 |
ARO
1 - 0
GFC
58%
24%
18%
|
65 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2017 |
ARO
3 - 0
COR
82%
14%
5%
|
66 | 28 | 38 | -1 |