Serie B Playoffs Playoff Título Semi-finals
Global 4-3
Padova vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.7%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.1%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.5%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
21.9%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Padova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2011 |
TOR
0 - 2
PAD
53%
26%
21%
|
68 | 70 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2011 |
PAD
3 - 2
LIV
44%
28%
29%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | +1 |
| 14 May. 2011 |
SAS
0 - 1
PAD
46%
27%
27%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2011 |
PAD
3 - 1
ASC
50%
27%
23%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | +1 |
| 30 Apr. 2011 |
VAR
0 - 0
PAD
49%
26%
25%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2011 |
VAR
1 - 0
PIA
57%
24%
19%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2011 |
SIE
5 - 0
VAR
62%
24%
15%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | -1 |
| 14 May. 2011 |
VAR
3 - 0
MOD
50%
26%
24%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 May. 2011 |
REG
1 - 1
VAR
52%
27%
21%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2011 |
VAR
0 - 0
PAD
49%
26%
25%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | 0 |