Desenzano Calvina vs Varesina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.3%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.8%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.7%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
24%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24%
24.8%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.3%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Desenzano Calvina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2024 |
PAL
1 - 3
DES
24%
24%
52%
|
51 | 44 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 1
DES
12%
23%
65%
|
51 | 33 | 18 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2024 |
DES
1 - 1
ARC
55%
25%
21%
|
51 | 46 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2024 |
TRI
0 - 2
DES
8%
21%
71%
|
51 | 27 | 24 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
DES
2 - 0
CAS
56%
25%
20%
|
50 | 45 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Varesina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2024 |
PIA
3 - 4
VAR
65%
20%
15%
|
45 | 55 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
VAR
2 - 2
PIA
24%
25%
51%
|
45 | 55 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2024 |
CAL
1 - 2
VAR
34%
27%
40%
|
44 | 40 | 4 | +1 |
| 21 Apr. 2024 |
VAR
2 - 1
USP
77%
15%
9%
|
43 | 29 | 14 | +1 |
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
UNI
1 - 1
VAR
26%
27%
47%
|
43 | 36 | 7 | 0 |