Inter-Cities Fairs Cup 1/32
Global 4-1
Cagliari vs Aris Thessaloniki analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.2%
Win probability
2.37
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.4%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.7%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.4%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
17.6%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.6%
13.2%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cagliari
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 1969 |
BRE
0 - 2
CAG
35%
29%
37%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1969 |
CAG
2 - 1
VIC
63%
22%
15%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1969 |
ARI
1 - 1
CAG
43%
26%
32%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 1969 |
SAM
0 - 0
CAG
34%
29%
37%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 1969 |
CAG
2 - 2
CAT
82%
13%
6%
|
83 | 57 | 26 | 0 |
Matches
Aris Thessaloniki
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 1969 |
ARI
1 - 1
CAG
43%
26%
32%
|
71 | 83 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 1968 |
UJP
9 - 1
ARI
69%
17%
14%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | -1 |
| 06 Nov. 1968 |
ARI
1 - 2
UJP
45%
23%
32%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | -1 |
| 22 Sep. 1968 |
HIB
0 - 6
ARI
43%
22%
35%
|
72 | 65 | 7 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 1968 |
ARI
1 - 0
HIB
62%
19%
20%
|
71 | 65 | 6 | +1 |