Caernarfon Town FC vs The New Saints analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.7%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.1%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.7%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.7%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.6%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.6%
28.7%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.1%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+45%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
37
1º
3º
2º
54
1º
4º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
54 | 19 |
1º
|
44% | |
|
|
4º
|
37 | 17 |
2º
|
28.5% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 14 |
3º
|
28% | |
|
3º
|
44 | 12 |
4º
|
28.5% | |
|
2º
|
51 | 12 |
5º
|
27% | |
|
6º
|
32 | 10 |
6º
|
41.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
38.5% | 44% |
|
Play-offs
|
48.5% | 46% |
|
Next round
|
13% | 10% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 2025 |
BAL
1 - 3
CAE
37%
26%
37%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
CAE
3 - 0
FLI
59%
20%
21%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | -1 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
BAL
0 - 2
CAE
39%
26%
35%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2024 |
CAE
2 - 5
TNS
49%
23%
29%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
ABE
3 - 1
CAE
20%
23%
58%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
TNS
3 - 1
CAR
61%
20%
19%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
CAR
0 - 2
TNS
42%
24%
34%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | -1 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
TNS
2 - 1
NEW
60%
20%
20%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2024 |
TNS
2 - 1
CON
63%
20%
17%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2024 |
CAE
2 - 5
TNS
49%
23%
29%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |