Caernarfon Town FC vs Pontypridd United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.8%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.4%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.4%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.4%
16.7%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.1%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
1º
5º
3º
38
1º
2º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
3º
|
38 | 19 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
1º
|
44 | 18 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
40 | 17 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
36 | 13 |
4º
|
71% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 12 |
5º
|
71% | |
|
6º
|
2 | 2 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2023 |
CAE
4 - 0
AIR
80%
14%
7%
|
58 | 38 | 20 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
HAV
2 - 2
CAE
42%
26%
32%
|
58 | 58 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2023 |
CAE
0 - 1
ABE
63%
20%
17%
|
58 | 52 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
PON
1 - 0
CAE
28%
24%
48%
|
59 | 51 | 8 | -1 |
| 24 Feb. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 2
FLI
53%
23%
23%
|
59 | 57 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Pontypridd United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2023 |
HAV
2 - 0
PON
58%
23%
19%
|
53 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2023 |
PON
1 - 1
ABE
43%
25%
32%
|
53 | 54 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
AIR
0 - 3
PON
21%
22%
57%
|
53 | 38 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
FLI
0 - 0
PON
56%
23%
21%
|
52 | 58 | 6 | +1 |
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
PON
1 - 0
CAE
28%
24%
48%
|
51 | 59 | 8 | +1 |