Caernarfon Town FC vs Connah's Quay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.6%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
7%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.7%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.7%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.2%
32.2%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.4%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
2º
5º
5º
59
2º
4º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
92 | 30 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 14 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
59 | 12 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
44 | 11 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
41 | 10 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 5 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 100% |
|
Play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 2024 |
BAL
1 - 1
CAE
49%
25%
27%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 0
NEW
43%
24%
33%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 8
TNS
37%
24%
38%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | -1 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 2
CAE
50%
24%
26%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
CON
1 - 1
CAE
54%
23%
23%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 2024 |
CON
1 - 5
TNS
43%
25%
32%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2024 |
BAL
1 - 0
CON
44%
27%
29%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
CON
2 - 1
CAR
50%
26%
24%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
BUC
1 - 4
CON
9%
17%
75%
|
67 | 36 | 31 | -1 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
NEW
2 - 3
CON
44%
26%
30%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | +1 |