Caernarfon Town FC vs Connah's Quay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.8%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.1%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.4%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
26.5%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.5%
31.7%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.8%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
31
1º
8º
7º
47
2º
11º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
31.5% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
68.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 2023 |
CAE
1 - 1
BAL
35%
25%
40%
|
59 | 65 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
HAV
1 - 1
CAE
38%
26%
36%
|
59 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 1
NEW
36%
25%
39%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | +1 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
COL
0 - 4
CAE
36%
24%
40%
|
56 | 52 | 4 | +2 |
| 04 Aug. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 2
POR
88%
9%
4%
|
56 | 28 | 28 | 0 |
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 2023 |
CON
3 - 1
NEW
40%
27%
34%
|
63 | 61 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2023 |
BAL
1 - 0
CON
52%
25%
24%
|
64 | 64 | 0 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 2023 |
CON
4 - 0
ABE
54%
25%
21%
|
63 | 55 | 8 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2023 |
TNS
6 - 2
CON
66%
20%
15%
|
63 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
TNS
2 - 1
CON
70%
17%
13%
|
64 | 68 | 4 | -1 |