Caernarfon Town FC vs Colwyn Bay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.1%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.4%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.2%
17.7%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
31
1º
8º
7º
14
9º
12º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
31.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
68.5% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
TNS
2 - 1
CAE
71%
16%
13%
|
61 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
CAE
0 - 1
HAV
51%
24%
26%
|
61 | 62 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
PON
1 - 2
CAE
26%
24%
50%
|
61 | 55 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2023 |
BAL
1 - 1
CAE
51%
24%
25%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | +1 |
| 19 Nov. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 3
BAR
68%
19%
13%
|
61 | 55 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Colwyn Bay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
COL
2 - 3
BAL
25%
25%
50%
|
55 | 68 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
COL
2 - 0
BAR
45%
23%
32%
|
54 | 56 | 2 | +1 |
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
NEW
4 - 2
COL
69%
19%
12%
|
55 | 68 | 13 | -1 |
| 29 Nov. 2023 |
COL
2 - 3
CON
25%
26%
50%
|
55 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2023 |
COL
2 - 1
PEN
21%
24%
55%
|
53 | 67 | 14 | +2 |