Caernarfon Town FC vs Barry Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.6%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.4%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.9%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.1%
13.3%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
31
1º
8º
7º
23
7º
11º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
31.5% | 1.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
68.5% | 98.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 4
PEN
39%
26%
36%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2023 |
CON
6 - 1
CAE
49%
25%
26%
|
61 | 67 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Oct. 2023 |
CAE
5 - 1
CAR
36%
27%
38%
|
59 | 67 | 8 | +2 |
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
CAE
3 - 0
ABE
65%
20%
15%
|
58 | 51 | 7 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
CON
4 - 1
CAE
53%
23%
24%
|
59 | 68 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Barry Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
BAR
1 - 0
GUI
63%
19%
18%
|
53 | 47 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
BAR
0 - 1
ABE
52%
23%
25%
|
54 | 53 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
COL
0 - 1
BAR
51%
24%
26%
|
53 | 52 | 1 | +1 |
| 21 Oct. 2023 |
BAR
2 - 6
TNS
18%
22%
60%
|
54 | 67 | 13 | -1 |
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
BAR
2 - 0
PON
40%
25%
34%
|
52 | 57 | 5 | +2 |