Caerau Ely vs Connah's Quay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13.9%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.8%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.2%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
3.9%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.7%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.8%
66.3%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.4%
0-2
11.8%
1-3
6.8%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.2%
0-3
8.2%
1-4
3.5%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.4%
0-4
4.2%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.9%
0-5
1.8%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.3%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caerau Ely
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
CAR
2 - 0
CAE
41%
24%
35%
|
46 | 45 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2025 |
CAE
2 - 1
AAF
55%
22%
23%
|
45 | 44 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
BDG
2 - 1
CAE
29%
23%
48%
|
46 | 38 | 8 | -1 |
| 03 Jan. 2025 |
CAE
1 - 2
CWM
72%
16%
12%
|
46 | 34 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2024 |
PEN
0 - 4
CAE
21%
21%
58%
|
45 | 27 | 18 | +1 |
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
CON
1 - 0
NEW
44%
26%
30%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
FLI
2 - 1
CON
39%
26%
35%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2025 |
CON
0 - 2
BAL
48%
26%
26%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
PEN
1 - 0
CON
46%
26%
28%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2024 |
TNS
2 - 1
CON
63%
20%
17%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |