Caen vs Lorient analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.4%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.8%
2-0
4%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.3%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
6%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.8%
26%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
49.6%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
0-1
12.7%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.1%
0-3
4.8%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
6.8%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
11º
16º
11º
10
1º
7º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
4º
|
10 | 65 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 61 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 56 |
3º
|
16% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 54 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
1º
|
11 | 52 |
5º
|
10.5% | |
|
9º
|
8 | 48 |
6º
|
4.5% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 48 |
7º
|
6.5% | |
|
10º
|
8 | 48 |
8º
|
8.5% | |
|
7º
|
9 | 46 |
9º
|
9% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 45 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
4 | 44 |
11º
|
5.5% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 44 |
12º
|
8% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 43 |
13º
|
8% | |
|
8º
|
9 | 43 |
14º
|
6% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 40 |
15º
|
9% | |
|
11º
|
7 | 35 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
17º
|
3 | 35 |
17º
|
12% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 33 |
18º
|
29% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
2% | 63.5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
8% | 27% |
|
Mid-table
|
72% | 9.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
9.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
8.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 0
AJA
50%
27%
23%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2024 |
GRE
3 - 1
CAE
35%
27%
39%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | -1 |
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 1
ANN
45%
27%
29%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
PAU
1 - 0
CAE
39%
26%
36%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
CAE
0 - 2
PFC
39%
28%
33%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Lorient
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
MET
1 - 1
LOR
39%
27%
34%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
LOR
2 - 1
RED
58%
23%
19%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
AMI
1 - 0
LOR
21%
25%
54%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
LOR
2 - 0
GRE
65%
22%
13%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2024 |
FCM
0 - 1
LOR
26%
26%
49%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | +1 |