Conmebol Sudamericana Semi-finals
Global 0-3
Vélez Sarsfield vs Liga de Quito analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.2%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18%
1-0
14.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
24.1%
17.6%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.3%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vélez Sarsfield
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
VEL
1 - 1
COL
59%
23%
18%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2011 |
LIG
2 - 0
VEL
42%
26%
32%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2011 |
BEL
1 - 3
VEL
31%
27%
42%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2011 |
VEL
3 - 2
SFE
62%
22%
16%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2011 |
VEL
0 - 0
BOC
52%
25%
23%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Liga de Quito
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
LIG
1 - 2
IMB
70%
19%
12%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2011 |
LIG
2 - 0
VEL
42%
26%
32%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | +1 |
| 22 Nov. 2011 |
IVT
2 - 0
LIG
41%
27%
32%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | -1 |
| 20 Nov. 2011 |
MAN
0 - 0
LIG
24%
29%
47%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2011 |
LIB
1 - 0
LIG
52%
24%
23%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |