Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 4-3
River Plate vs U. Católica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77%
Win probability
2.71
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.2%
5-0
3.5%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.1%
4-0
6.6%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.1%
3-0
9.7%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.4%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.7%
14.1%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
14.1%
8.8%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.3%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1995 |
RIV
0 - 1
GIM
73%
17%
9%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1995 |
UCO
2 - 1
RIV
43%
25%
32%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1995 |
RAC
1 - 3
RIV
28%
29%
43%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1995 |
RIV
1 - 1
PEÑ
69%
19%
12%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1995 |
BEL
1 - 0
RIV
33%
28%
40%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 1995 |
UCO
2 - 1
RIV
43%
25%
32%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1995 |
UCO
4 - 1
UCH
69%
18%
13%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1995 |
UCO
1 - 1
NAC
55%
25%
21%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1995 |
UCO
4 - 1
MIL
55%
23%
22%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | +1 |
| 15 Mar. 1995 |
UCO
2 - 0
UCH
66%
19%
15%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | +1 |