Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 8-1
River Plate vs Independiente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.9%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.7%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.3%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.8%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.6%
12.5%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
RIV
3 - 0
OLI
81%
13%
6%
|
84 | 69 | 15 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2003 |
ARS
1 - 0
RIV
17%
20%
63%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
RIV
2 - 2
QUI
83%
12%
5%
|
84 | 63 | 21 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2003 |
IND
1 - 4
RIV
32%
25%
43%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2003 |
BAN
0 - 0
RIV
22%
23%
55%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
IND
1 - 2
COL
42%
26%
32%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2003 |
OLI
0 - 2
IND
32%
28%
40%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
IND
0 - 0
ARS
61%
23%
16%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2003 |
IND
1 - 4
RIV
32%
25%
43%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | -1 |
| 04 Sep. 2003 |
CEN
0 - 1
IND
55%
24%
21%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | +1 |