Copa Libertadores Semi-finals
Global 1-1
River Plate vs At. Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.7%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
5%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.2%
2-0
12.2%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.7%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.4%
14.9%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
4%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug. 1995 |
BEL
0 - 2
RIV
31%
28%
41%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 1995 |
NAC
1 - 0
RIV
41%
29%
30%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 1995 |
RIV
2 - 1
SLO
55%
23%
22%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 1995 |
VEL
0 - 0
RIV
49%
27%
24%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 1995 |
RIV
1 - 1
VEL
57%
23%
20%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 1995 |
NAC
1 - 0
RIV
41%
29%
30%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 1995 |
MIL
1 - 1
NAC
54%
23%
24%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 1995 |
NAC
2 - 1
MIL
58%
22%
20%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1995 |
PEÑ
1 - 3
NAC
48%
26%
26%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | +1 |
| 26 Apr. 1995 |
NAC
3 - 1
PEÑ
47%
26%
28%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | +1 |