Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 1-2
River Plate vs Arsenal de Sarandí analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.4%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.2%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.9%
2-0
13%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.9%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.5%
12.2%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep. 2004 |
RIV
2 - 2
NOB
65%
20%
16%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2004 |
ARS
1 - 2
RIV
26%
26%
48%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2004 |
RIV
1 - 1
EST
72%
18%
11%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2004 |
RAC
1 - 2
RIV
31%
26%
43%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2004 |
ARS
2 - 1
RIV
29%
27%
44%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal de Sarandí
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep. 2004 |
EST
0 - 0
ARS
51%
25%
24%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2004 |
ARS
1 - 2
RIV
26%
26%
48%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2004 |
INS
0 - 1
ARS
23%
28%
49%
|
78 | 58 | 20 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2004 |
ARS
0 - 1
ARG
66%
22%
12%
|
78 | 62 | 16 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2004 |
ARS
2 - 1
RIV
29%
27%
44%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | +1 |