CA Lugano vs Mercedes analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.8%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.9%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.2%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.9%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
29.5%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.8%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-21%
+11%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
2º
9º
4º
12
3º
9º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
20 | 20 |
1º
|
0% | |
|
2º
|
20 | 20 |
2º
|
0% | |
|
3º
|
16 | 16 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
|
4º
|
16 | 16 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
15 | 15 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
15 | 15 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
14 | 14 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
|
8º
|
12 | 12 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
11 | 11 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
11 | 11 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
1 | 1 |
11º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CA Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
DPA
0 - 1
LUG
29%
25%
46%
|
30 | 25 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
LUG
0 - 1
POR
63%
22%
15%
|
31 | 23 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
LUG
1 - 3
MUÑ
44%
27%
29%
|
33 | 32 | 1 | -2 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
MUÑ
1 - 1
LUG
38%
26%
36%
|
33 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2022 |
LUG
3 - 2
CBA
52%
25%
22%
|
33 | 27 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Mercedes
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
MER
1 - 0
CBA
55%
22%
23%
|
27 | 24 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
CES
1 - 1
MER
46%
24%
31%
|
27 | 29 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
JUU
1 - 0
MER
34%
23%
43%
|
28 | 25 | 3 | -1 |
| 24 Sep. 2022 |
MER
2 - 1
SBA
24%
23%
54%
|
26 | 37 | 11 | +2 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
CAM
3 - 0
MER
70%
17%
13%
|
27 | 38 | 11 | -1 |