Recopa Sudamerica Final
Global 4-3
Boca Juniors vs São Paulo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.9%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.5%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.1%
1-0
9%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.5%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.7%
36.4%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.6%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 2006 |
BOC
2 - 0
EST
64%
21%
15%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2006 |
SLO
1 - 7
BOC
39%
26%
35%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2006 |
BOC
1 - 0
IND
61%
21%
17%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2006 |
CEN
1 - 2
BOC
29%
27%
44%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2006 |
BOC
3 - 0
BAN
58%
23%
19%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 2006 |
SAN
1 - 3
SAO
16%
23%
61%
|
87 | 67 | 20 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2006 |
SAO
1 - 1
FOR
76%
16%
9%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2006 |
FLA
1 - 1
SAO
25%
25%
51%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2006 |
SAO
3 - 2
PAR
65%
20%
15%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2006 |
CRZ
2 - 2
SAO
35%
25%
41%
|
87 | 82 | 5 | 0 |