Recopa Sudamerica Final
Global 4-3
Boca Juniors vs Once Caldas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.2%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
16.4%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2005 |
LAN
1 - 1
BOC
40%
26%
34%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2005 |
BOC
2 - 2
CEN
53%
24%
23%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | -1 |
| 07 Aug. 2005 |
BOC
4 - 1
GIM
78%
16%
7%
|
81 | 58 | 23 | +1 |
| 03 Jul. 2005 |
ALM
3 - 2
BOC
25%
27%
48%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | -1 |
| 26 Jun. 2005 |
BOC
0 - 0
QUI
71%
19%
10%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Once Caldas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2005 |
CAL
3 - 0
ONC
52%
25%
23%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2005 |
ONC
4 - 0
UNI
63%
23%
14%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2005 |
NAC
2 - 1
ONC
53%
25%
22%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2005 |
TOL
3 - 1
ONC
50%
26%
25%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2005 |
ONC
0 - 0
SFE
54%
26%
20%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |